The Overpopulation Project
TOP – Research and Outreach
Too many people consuming too much
Category: Fertility rate
-
A shrinking population might actually be a good thing
Many articles warn about falling birth rates, stoking fears that a shrinking population will destroy the economy. This ignores how other factors influence economic growth. In an article first published by The Globe and Mail, Chris Gay explains how increased productivity gains can counteract the effects of a smaller workforce, ultimately allowing the population to…
7 comments on A shrinking population might actually be a good thing -
Two prominent economists talk up population decline
Recently two of the world’s most eminent economists separately published articles on the benefits of population decline, debunking many contrary claims. Let’s hope some governments are listening. by Jane O’Sullivan Daron Acemoglu is a professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and won the 2024 Economics “Nobel Prize” (along with Simon Johnson and James A.…
-
Study: Slowing population growth could do more for biodiversity than reducing consumption
Habitat loss from agricultural expansion is a leading cause of biodiversity loss. A new study published in PNAS found that reducing population growth in low-income countries would shrink future global cropland requirements more than slashing consumption in higher-income countries. by Olivia Nater, originally published by Population Connection Biodiversity loss from crop expansion Almost half of…
-
A useful tool to explore future population possibilities
Our World in Data has recently published a population projection tool that readers will likely find useful. Whether the trends and possibilities it illustrates breed complacency or urgency remains to be seen. by Philip Cafaro Within the past decade, Our World in Data (OWID) has emerged as a leading purveyor of global economic, health, and…
-
The role of mortality in fertility transition studies
Many of those concerned about overpopulation are encouraged by trends showing declining births per woman (TFR). However, a recent study by Skirbekk and Spoorenberg shows that taking declining death rates into account, net reproduction and hence the population growth rate have peaked later than typically reported. Most striking, in seven African countries, fertility transitions have…
-
Population growth is still rapid. Has the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) forgotten family planning programs?
Projected population growth of about 2 billion in Africa and elsewhere contributes to poverty, impoverished reproductive health, and degradation of environment and climate. In a new publication in the journal Reproductive Health we argue that this unsustainable growth and the crucial role of family planning are neglected by among others the UN Population Fund. We…
-
The Most Appropriate Response to Falling Birthrates? Embrace Them
Many governments are panicking over declining birthrates, but efforts to reverse the trend are ineffective and undermine reproductive freedom. Falling birthrates should instead be celebrated as a sign of increased reproductive agency among women. By Nandita Bajaj As birthrates continue to decline in many industrialized countries, anxious governments are running out of schemes to keep…
-
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
Pronatalistic alarmism about an oncoming economic crisis driven by a decline in birth rates is largely unfounded. In reality, the average number of children per woman in the US has stayed relatively consistent in recent decades, and technological advancements and increased workforce participation mean that the proportion of workers can remain stable at lower fertility…
-
The imminence (or otherwise) of depopulation
Whether you see a peak and decline of world population as a good thing or a bad thing, lots of people are speculating that it is imminent. Can we believe them? Jane O’Sullivan According to the most recent United Nations projections, the world population will peak sixty years from now at around 10.3 billion. Lately,…
-
Trump or Harris: the implications for U.S. immigration policy
Who would you choose if you could vote in the upcoming U.S. presidential election? Who Americans choose has important implications for people around the world. Unfortunately, neither major party candidate is committed to ending U.S. population growth or creating an environmentally sustainable society. by Philip Cafaro Once every four years, I attend to my civic…
-
Thirty years is too long to turn a blind eye to world population growth
September 13 marks thirty years since the United Nations International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo effectively denounced population stabilisation as a development goal. The consequences have been disastrous. by Jane O’Sullivan The United Nations Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo in September 1994 profoundly shifted the UN’s approach to…
-
‘Climate refugees’ and the question of limiting immigration: a response to Migration in Hotter Times
A recent discussion paper on climate refugees, Migration in Hotter Times: Humanity at Risk, does much to muddy the water without presenting practical solutions. by Jane O’Sullivan and Philip Cafaro Immigration is a deeply divisive topic, even among population activists. It is not uncommon to have a strong commitment to global population stabilisation while believing…
-
Losing Our Minds
In the 1970’s the leading intellectuals in the United States were concerned about overpopulation. Fifty years later, the best and brightest minds in America now think we are running out of people. What the hell is going on? by Brad Meiklejohn “Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.” –…
-
World population revised upwards again
On 11 July, the United Nations published its new population estimates and projections. While trumpeting the promise of a lower global peak as “a hopeful sign [for] reduced environmental pressures” in the press release, they don’t mention there are now 43 million more people than they anticipated as recently as 2022. Not such a hopeful…
-
New US population projection tool under construction
TOP is developing a new population projection tool for the United States, based on US Census Bureau methodology and data. Check it out! You can run your own US population projections under different fertility and immigration scenarios — and help us improve the projection tool with your suggestions. by Philip Cafaro One of our more…
-
Religion affects birth rates
The global human population will increase by 2.4 billion to 2088, according to the UN. Birth rates are high in some parts of the world, leading to continued population growth. In Africa and parts of Asia, and within Muslim countries and communities, religiosity promotes high birth rates. This role of religion could, however, potentially be…
-
Overpopulation Is Still a Huge Problem: An Interview with Jane O’Sullivan
Despite reports that world population is peaking and fertility rates dropping, the human population is still growing at an unrelenting and unsustainable pace. In an interview by Richard Heinberg, Jane O’Sullivan sets the record straight. By Richard Heinberg, originally published by Resilience.org In February, I interviewed biochemist Chris Bystroff, whose peer-reviewed analysis suggests that world…
-
Demography and reproductive rights are environmental issues: Insights from sub-Saharan Africa
Rapid population growth impacts many social, economic, and environmental issues, and sub-Saharan Africa is the fastest growing region in the world. Céline Delacroix and Nkechi S. Owoo asked stakeholders in the region how important they think population growth is as a factor in meeting the region’s challenges. By Céline Delacroix Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is growing…
-
Birth rates have been falling in Nigeria, though slowly. What factors cause declining fertility, according to educated people in Nigeria?
Since 1970, birth rates have been falling in most developing countries. An earlier study by TOP researchers found that Swedes generally think that improved living conditions, including economic and educational progress, are the cause for declining fertility. What do Nigerians, living in a developing country, think about declining fertility in their country? By Frank Götmark…
-
The Catalyst of Overpopulation in the Gaza Conflict
Mountains of work have analysed the roots of the conflict in Gaza, but all have missed the catalyst of increasing population. By Jon Austen and Jane O’Sullivan The Israel-Palestine conflict has been ongoing for 75 years. The recent eruption of violence is a tragedy but not surprising. Neither side is going to back down, both…
-
Delusional population projections lead us sleepwalking into catastrophe
Recent United Nations population projections paint a comforting picture of immanent population stabilization. But what if they are wrong? Global population growth does not appear to be slowing as quickly as UN demographers have predicted, making widespread famines and run-away climate change more likely in the coming decades. By Jane O’Sullivan The Elon Musks of…
-
Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems
Then again, neither is anything else. The long lag time between fertility reduction and population stabilization is a key reason we need to address excessive human numbers sooner rather than later. by Phil Cafaro There’s an argument one often hears that goes like this: “sure, population is important. But we need to reduce our environmental…
-
Even with strong early family planning programs, 50 years or more are needed to halt population growth
Low birth rates are often regarded as problematic by major media, which overlook the perils of population increase. Here we show that unsustainable long-term population growth prevails in developing countries, despite historical family planning and gradually sinking birth rates. One lesson is that further reduced rates are urgently needed in high-fertility countries, in Africa and…
-
More population neglect from the United Nations
The UN’s latest State of the World Population 2023 report deepens its denouncement of population concerns. While it commendably emphasizes women’s reproductive rights, it neglects the role an excessive and growing population plays in driving global ecological degradation and overlooks the many ways overpopulation can undermine poor people’s rights to safety and security. by Jan…
-
Making media seriously discuss population growth and its consequences – a case in Sweden
Newspapers, radio, and TV in many countries usually avoid the problems of population growth and overpopulation. But by focused work it is possible to get the attention of mainstream media. This recently happened in Sweden, to judge from a TV program broadcast 13 April. By Frank Götmark and Malte Andersson How can you highlight the…
-
The imaginary world of Earth4All’s low population projections
A new report from Earth4All says world population will peak below 9 billion. While it celebrates this result and says we must work to get it even lower, this unrealistically low projection itself is likely to have the opposite effect. by Jane O’Sullivan Last week a consortium under the name of Earth4All published new population…
-
Do three Pacific islands provide lessons for achieving a sustainable human population?
These islands were more-or-less isolated, microcosms that perhaps tell us what is going to happen with the global population. Anthropological accounts also describe remarkable forms of birth control. Do they tell us anything about how to achieve sustainable populations today? By Frank Götmark Easter Island, and historical background One of the most debated questions…
-
Religion and religiosity pose challenges for fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is the only world region projected to continue population growth in the second half of this century, and even beyond 2100. In SSA, religion and religiosity are major factors contributing to the persistent high birth rates. A new publication by TOP co-workers is reviewing the relationship between human fertility and religions in…
-
Fertility decline in developing countries does not depend on economic growth but follows contraceptive use
Many politicians, the public, and some scientists still think that economic development is a major cause of reduced birth rates in developing countries. We tested this belief empirically in a recently published long-term study of many countries (1970-2014). We found no relationships between fertility and economic growth, but a strong association with modern contraception: birth rates…
-
Eight Billion – Our Greatest Mistake
According to the United Nations Population Fund, reaching a global human population of 8 billion is an achievement to be celebrated. In “a world of infinite possibilities,” they state, “imagine the boundless paths 8 billion can take.” Rather than taking refuge in irresponsible fantasies, it’s time our bloated societies reckoned honesty with demographic reality. By…
-
In America, reproductive rights have fallen prey to a creeping theocracy
The United States of America is becoming a theocracy. The Dobbs decision has bypassed the Congress by having the Supreme Court establish a de facto religion which forces unwilling women to become mothers. By Richard Grossman, MD © 2022 For years I have hesitated to write about the effect of religion on population. My hesitation has…
-
The per capita fallacy
Are many tiny ecological footprints more virtuous than fewer, larger ones? Will they be better for the Earth, or easier to accomplish? These hard questions need to be asked as humanity hurtles past 8 billion people and deeper into ecological overshoot. By Gaia Baracetti You’ve all heard the argument: high birth rates in poor countries…
-
Time for Sweden to resume focus on international family planning aid
Recent research suggests lack of contraception and high desired family size both hinder population stabilization in Africa. We call on the newly elected Swedish government to prioritize international family planning aid, resuming a valuable Swedish tradition. By Frank Götmark, Nordhild Wetzler, Malte Andersson, Carl Wahren, Karl-Erik Norrman An Op-Ed originally published in Svenska Dagbladet…
-
The role of immigration in Italy’s recent election
How important were immigration issues in the recent electoral triumph of Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia party? TOP’s chief Italian correspondent gives us her analysis. by Gaia Baracetti History does repeat itself – but not in the obvious way. One could fear we’re witnessing a second March on Rome exactly a century after the first, but…
-
Conserving biodiversity means limiting human numbers
A recent letter in Biological Conservation criticized TOP researchers for writing about how more people means less space for wildlife. We responded that without limiting our numbers, people will not be able to protect the natural world. Who’s right? Please share your thoughts and ideas in the on-line comments below. by The Overpopulation Project This…
-
World population is growing faster than we thought
We’ve all heard the aphorism ‘Lies, damned lies and statistics.’ Statistics are an invaluable tool for understanding and responding appropriately to the world, but when the numbers say one thing and the headlines say another, it’s a cause for concern. TOP takes a dive into World Population Prospects 2022. by Jane O’Sullivan The world’s population…
-
What do citizens of a donor country think drives fertility decline in low-income countries?
In TOP, we have researched what causes the birth rate and family size to fall in developing countries. A major factor has been voluntary family planning programs in countries like Costa Rica, Iran and South Korea. In current academic literature, the dominating paradigm is increased education of women. In developmental aid, “reproductive health” is often…
Explore the content and topics covered by TOP, search here
Recent blog posts
Blog categories
What we are reading, listening to and watching
Gallery of infographics – Learn more about overpopulation and environment
