The Overpopulation Project
TOP – Research and Outreach
Too many people consuming too much
Category: Population Projections
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Watershed Woes
Despite half a century of efforts to improve water quality and restore fisheries in America’s Chesapeake Bay, its ecological condition continues to decline. A new study quantifies the environmental problems within the Chesapeake Bay watershed, explores their causes, and discusses possible futures. by Philip Cafaro As the third largest estuary on Earth, the Chesapeake Bay…
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Why is Africa’s extreme population growth ignored, despite very serious consequences? And how will Europe respond?
Continued rapid global population growth is unsustainable, but the media instead focus on low birth rates in developed countries. Most future growth will be in Africa, where young people want to emigrate to Europe or other developed regions. How will EU countries act in the face of Africa’s extreme population growth and increasing migration? By…
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Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
Pronatalistic alarmism about an oncoming economic crisis driven by a decline in birth rates is largely unfounded. In reality, the average number of children per woman in the US has stayed relatively consistent in recent decades, and technological advancements and increased workforce participation mean that the proportion of workers can remain stable at lower fertility…
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The Demographic Struggle Over International Migration
A large percentage of people want to emigrate to another country, but many people in destination countries are opposed to accepting large numbers of immigrants. International migration is a highly difficult issue with no simple solution. by Joseph Chamie Approximately 1.3 billion people, or 16% of the world’s population, wish to leave their country permanently,…
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The imminence (or otherwise) of depopulation
Whether you see a peak and decline of world population as a good thing or a bad thing, lots of people are speculating that it is imminent. Can we believe them? Jane O’Sullivan According to the most recent United Nations projections, the world population will peak sixty years from now at around 10.3 billion. Lately,…
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The impact of immigration policy on future U.S. population size
Immigration will be the key factor determining whether populations in the developed world increase or decrease over the coming century. Newly published policy-based population projections illustrate this for the United States. by Philip Cafaro Population size helps determine human societies’ environmental impacts. Given that immigration is a key factor influencing the size of human populations,…
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Court ruling could lead to an environmental impact statement on US immigration policy
United States law requires that important federal policies and projects undergo environmental impact statements. While immigration policy has never been subjected to such an analysis, that might be about to change, thanks to a recent court ruling. by Philip Cafaro The U.S. National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) of 1969 mandates that any federal policy or…
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Trump or Harris: the implications for U.S. immigration policy
Who would you choose if you could vote in the upcoming U.S. presidential election? Who Americans choose has important implications for people around the world. Unfortunately, neither major party candidate is committed to ending U.S. population growth or creating an environmentally sustainable society. by Philip Cafaro Once every four years, I attend to my civic…
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Thirty years is too long to turn a blind eye to world population growth
September 13 marks thirty years since the United Nations International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo effectively denounced population stabilisation as a development goal. The consequences have been disastrous. by Jane O’Sullivan The United Nations Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo in September 1994 profoundly shifted the UN’s approach to…
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World population revised upwards again
On 11 July, the United Nations published its new population estimates and projections. While trumpeting the promise of a lower global peak as “a hopeful sign [for] reduced environmental pressures” in the press release, they don’t mention there are now 43 million more people than they anticipated as recently as 2022. Not such a hopeful…
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New US population projection tool under construction
TOP is developing a new population projection tool for the United States, based on US Census Bureau methodology and data. Check it out! You can run your own US population projections under different fertility and immigration scenarios — and help us improve the projection tool with your suggestions. by Philip Cafaro One of our more…
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Overpopulation Is Still a Huge Problem: An Interview with Jane O’Sullivan
Despite reports that world population is peaking and fertility rates dropping, the human population is still growing at an unrelenting and unsustainable pace. In an interview by Richard Heinberg, Jane O’Sullivan sets the record straight. By Richard Heinberg, originally published by Resilience.org In February, I interviewed biochemist Chris Bystroff, whose peer-reviewed analysis suggests that world…
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Overpopulation as a local problem
Overpopulation is commonly associated with global ecological overshoot, but it can occur at any level from the local to the global. Ecological overshoot in industrialised countries is complicated by labour migration, especially in urban areas. Population pressure on top of ecological overshoot should force these countries to reconsider overly permissive immigration policies. by Jan van…
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Delusional population projections lead us sleepwalking into catastrophe
Recent United Nations population projections paint a comforting picture of immanent population stabilization. But what if they are wrong? Global population growth does not appear to be slowing as quickly as UN demographers have predicted, making widespread famines and run-away climate change more likely in the coming decades. By Jane O’Sullivan The Elon Musks of…
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What you should know – but didn’t know to ask – about overshoot and the ‘population question’
William Rees explores the nature of humanity’s relationship with energy and the ecosphere, and reaches the unsettling conclusion that a population ‘correction’ is in the offing. By William Rees What would you think if someone called you out as a ‘dissipative structure’? Or better, claimed that you were a ‘thermodynamically far-from-equilibrium dissipative structure’? Chances are,…
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Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems
Then again, neither is anything else. The long lag time between fertility reduction and population stabilization is a key reason we need to address excessive human numbers sooner rather than later. by Phil Cafaro There’s an argument one often hears that goes like this: “sure, population is important. But we need to reduce our environmental…
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Even with strong early family planning programs, 50 years or more are needed to halt population growth
Low birth rates are often regarded as problematic by major media, which overlook the perils of population increase. Here we show that unsustainable long-term population growth prevails in developing countries, despite historical family planning and gradually sinking birth rates. One lesson is that further reduced rates are urgently needed in high-fertility countries, in Africa and…
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The imaginary world of Earth4All’s low population projections
A new report from Earth4All says world population will peak below 9 billion. While it celebrates this result and says we must work to get it even lower, this unrealistically low projection itself is likely to have the opposite effect. by Jane O’Sullivan Last week a consortium under the name of Earth4All published new population…
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Mainstream Media Blindness to China’s Depopulation Dividend
China’s population has started decreasing, which the media reports as an economic disaster. In his article originally published at Overpopulation News, Jon Austen explores how the media ignores the benefits of such a decline and finds agreement among commenters. By Jon Austen China has had its first fall in population in 61 years. The media…
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Eight Billion – Our Greatest Mistake
According to the United Nations Population Fund, reaching a global human population of 8 billion is an achievement to be celebrated. In “a world of infinite possibilities,” they state, “imagine the boundless paths 8 billion can take.” Rather than taking refuge in irresponsible fantasies, it’s time our bloated societies reckoned honesty with demographic reality. By…
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World population is growing faster than we thought
We’ve all heard the aphorism ‘Lies, damned lies and statistics.’ Statistics are an invaluable tool for understanding and responding appropriately to the world, but when the numbers say one thing and the headlines say another, it’s a cause for concern. TOP takes a dive into World Population Prospects 2022. by Jane O’Sullivan The world’s population…
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Religion, Fertility and Contraception in Sub-Saharan Africa, Part 4: African research and policy in Nigeria
African researchers have done excellent work to clarify how religious affiliation influences the use of contraception. In Nigeria, with high fertility and a large and growing population, use of modern contraception is still low. The teaching of Islam in particular, contributes to this situation. Several researchers emphasize that men and religious leaders should be involved…
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Aid needs to go where it will help most
Development aid often fails to address the root causes of poverty in poorer nations. A recently proposed program to further sexual and reproductive health in Uganda provides a welcome example of a more focused and effective approach. by Kelvin Thomson When I began full time work 45 years ago, I started paying a monthly sponsorship…
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Why Europeans are worried about African babies
Any time a Westerner expresses preoccupation about very high birth rates in a poor country, the conversation immediately turns to racism. Let’s dig deeper. by Gaia Baracetti Let’s not start with Prince William for once. Let’s begin with the great Italian poet Giovanni Pascoli. He was one of those rare rural poets who actually knew…
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Just population policies for an overpopulated world
After three decades of neglect, more environmentalists are waking back up to the need to limit human numbers. But like Rip Van Winkle, we find that the world changed while we were asleep. There are now billions more people, consuming more than ever, while our world has grown warmer, tamer, and more polluted. A new…
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The demographic fantasies of the IPCC
Climate change is now unequivocally an emergency according to the latest report from the IPCC. Our only hope lies in extremely rapid abandonment of fossil fuels and reversal of forest loss. But these lifeline scenarios also assume birth rates plummet in high-fertility regions. Jane O’Sullivan offers a reality check. By Jane O’Sullivan The Intergovernmental Panel…
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An Environmental Impact Statement on US Immigration Policy
What impact does US immigration policy have on greenhouse gas emissions, habitat preservation, or water and air pollution? Episode six of The Population Factor on Earthx TV addresses these questions, while episode seven, the final episode of season one, discusses how declining human populations open up new opportunities for ecological restoration. by The Overpopulation Project…
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Humanity needs to halt both population growth and climate change
Many of today’s environmental problems are more due to population growth than climate change, and climate change is driven in part by continued global population growth. Development funding to make family planning and modern contraceptives universally available could make a big difference in solving these interlocking problems. By Malte Andersson, Frank Götmark, and Anders Wijkman…
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Survey shows the general public is ready for discussions about population
A new survey from the Global Challenges Foundation shows wide concern about population growth and overpopulation in many parts of the world. by Pernilla Hansson In an attempt to assess the general public’s understanding of global catastrophic risks, the Global Challenges Foundation (GCF) recently carried out a large survey among people in 10 countries: Australia,…
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Will global population peak below 10 billion?
A major media storm has erupted about a new scientific paper published in the Lancet claiming that global population will soon peak and decline. The prospect is met with doom and gloom, rather than jubilation. But Jane O’Sullivan finds many reasons to challenge both the claim and its assumed economic threat. By escalating unfounded fears…
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New book argues for a sustainable world with 3 billion people
In his new book A Planet of 3 Billion, Christopher Tucker presents a vision of a future world inhabited by 3 billion people, compared to 7.8 billion today. Inspired by Joel Cohen’s 1995 book How Many People Can the Earth Support? Tucker sets out to answer exactly this question. The ecological destruction caused by humanity…
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Know the Numbers! TOP unveils new interactive population projections for the European Union
by Philip Cafaro In my experience teaching environmental ethics to college students and advocating for sustainable policies in the United States, the biggest obstacle to good discussions about population matters is ignorance about the numbers. How many people live in the United States? My students don’t know. Many environmentalists don’t know. What will the US…
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New EU population projections published
Researchers at TOP have published new population projections for all twenty-eight member countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole. These projections differ from the 2019 United Nations’ Population Division projections and other recent projections in two main ways. First, they project a wider range of fertility and migration scenarios farther…
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Part 2 Review of “Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline”
Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline claims that (a) life on earth is stressed but coping with the present level of human impact; (b) global population will peak in 2050; (c) subsequent population decline will alleviate ecological problems; and (d) countries with populations that are only slowly growing should act now to boost…
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“Overpopulation threatens the world’s food supply, United Nations warns”
That was the front-page headline in the New York Times last Thursday, August 8th, announcing a new report from the IPCC, “Climate Change and Land.” I’m kidding, of course. The actual headline read “Climate Change Threatens the World’s Food Supply, United Nations Warns,” and the article did not mention population once. By Philip Cafaro The…
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Recent blog posts
- The Most Appropriate Response to Falling Birthrates? Embrace Them
- New paper defends a pragmatic definition of overpopulation
- Because everyone else is (not) doing it: How social pressures may be the key to understand family size preferences
- The Psychology of our Strange Overpopulation Taboo
- Goodbye Paul Ehrlich
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Gallery of infographics – Learn more about overpopulation and environment
