The Overpopulation Project
TOP – Research and Outreach
Too many people consuming too much
Category: ecological footprint
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New paper defends a pragmatic definition of overpopulation
Distinguishing ecologically sustainable from excessive human populations is necessary to understand humanity’s environmental challenges and pursue our best options for addressing them. A new publication from TOP presents a definition of human overpopulation based on plausible scientific and ethical criteria, rather than wishful thinking. by Philip Cafaro Last year, TOP published a working paper presenting…
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What Are Floors Without Ceilings?
Staying within safe planetary boundaries for global resource use and pollution makes good sense. Are there a complementary set of economic and social measures that could help human societies remain within ecological limits? by Erik Assadourian Not long ago a new update to the Planetary Doughnut was published in Nature, complete with 35 indicators to…
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Thank you for the Baklava
Through a story centered around the nurturing of an orphaned owl, author Carl Safina tackles topics such as biodiversity loss, human overpopulation, and human beliefs. Richard Grossman has read the book. by Richard Grossman MD “Alfie & Me” is a many-layered joy to read! Its main story is as delicious as they come. An orphaned…
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Thirsty for Growth: How Arizona is Trading Water for Sprawl
Touted as a conservation success story, new legislation in Arizona is actually a ploy to resume unsustainable development in areas that are running out of water. It foolishly seeks to override hard physical limits with paper water credits, displacing wildlife and farmland in service to sprawl. by Phil Cafaro In June 2025, the Arizona Department…
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Growth Addiction and Water in the American Southwest
GrowthBusters is a terrific podcast dealing with the environmental costs of growth, hosted by Dave and Stephanie Gardner. On their latest episode, river activist Gary Wockner talks about the state of the Colorado River and the growth obsession that keeps cities and states in the southwestern U.S. from responding rationally to increasing water scarcity. by…
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Overpopulation: A New Survey Confirms the Cause of the Planet’s Environmental Crises
Synthesizing findings from hundreds of recent peer-reviewed scientific studies, a comprehensive new article reviews the effects of expanding human populations on humanity’s most pressing environmental problems. by Alon Tal A vast amount of research and rhetoric is devoted to the world’s many sustainability challenges. Yet most advocates and scientists assiduously avoid acknowledging the predominant driver…
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Is Homo sapiens an invasive species?
The global spread and increase of the human species is exceptional and seems unmatched in the animal kingdom. Some researchers suggest we resemble so-called invasive species. Does the label fit? By Frank Götmark (This a translation of a Swedish essay published in Svenska Dagbladet on 30 March, slightly modified) Japanese oyster, raccoon dog, lupine –…
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A new definition of global overpopulation, explained and applied
Some environmentalists believe current environmental problems can be addressed successfully without reducing human numbers, while others disagree. Which side is right? Our new working paper tries to get to the bottom of the matter. by Philip Cafaro Recent years have brought a cascade of bad environmental news from around the world: melting glaciers and acidifying…
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America’s “Serengeti” at risk: Population-driven sprawl threatens the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
From the Everglades to the Arctic plains, population growth and associated development threaten America’s protected areas. A recent study from NumbersUSA, Greater Yellowstone: An Ecosystem at Risk, documents this for the United States’ flagship national park. By Leon Kolankiewicz and Rob Harding Rampant development and a surging human population are imperiling what has been dubbed…
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A genuine humanity
Do modern societies have a realistic path toward living in harmony with nature? How can population activists combine compassion and effective advocacy? We invite your answers to these difficult yet necessary questions. by Gaia Baracetti Sebastião Salgado is a Brazilian photographer. His striking black-and-white photographs, taken during his long, immersive travels to forgotten or war-ravaged…
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No sustainable paradigm is attainable without gradual population reduction
The Jus Semper Global Alliance is dedicated to building a better world based on democracy, sustainability and fairly sharing the world’s wealth. Its website gathers valuable material on a full range of issues regarding economic, social and ecological justice. As its founder and executive director reminds us here, “no matter how efficient and fair the…
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Songs about population and the environment – what’s your favorite?
Music is a rich source of inspiration for those of us who want to end population growth and improve environmental conditions. TOP looks at some classic hits and new songs recently sent to us and asks for more. By The Overpopulation Project A few weeks ago, two readers contacted us regarding their own songs. Kelvin…
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Green parties lose big in EU parliamentary elections by ignoring the relationship between immigration and environmental damage
Green and left-wing parties lost ground in recent elections to the European Union Parliament, in part by neglecting and even denying the relationship between population growth by immigration and environmental stress. They could have used the topic to their advantage, but failed to do so. Instead it became the flagship issue of the right. By…
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Time to vote!
Immigration is proving to be a hot topic in the run up to EU parliamentary elections. While the focus has been on immigration’s cultural and social effects, changes in immigration policy could also impact future population numbers across Europe. This has consequences for citizens, the environment and ecosystems. by Philip Cafaro According to the European…
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Offsetting CO2 emissions from flights: a connection to population
Carbon offsets are always a compromise, not a substitute for avoiding emissions. However, if you have to fly, there are better options than the airlines’ voluntary offset programs. by Stephen Warren, Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, USA Airplanes are responsible for less than three percent of global CO2 emissions1, but aviation…
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Why Modern Monetary Theory is good news for population policy
Why do governments pursue pronatalist policies and mass immigration in the face of majority voter opposition and the environmental crisis? The answer lies in blinkered, growthist economic ideologies linked to mainstream macroeconomics that predominantly benefit the rich and powerful. by Stephen Williams A relatively new macroeconomics – modern monetary theory (MMT) – has strong evidentiary…
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Carbon emissions and the desperate search for culprits
Are rich people with their private jets the main cause of climate change? Or are the hundreds of millions joining the middle class in China and India? Or maybe large families of poor farmers in the tropics deforesting to make room for low-productive agriculture? This blog questions the search for specific culprits, which is often…
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Biodiversity and the roles of human population and consumption: a debate
It is the rich minority’s consumption that mainly affects the status of the Earth’s life support system, according to a response in Svenska Dagbladet by David Collste at Stockholm Resilience Center and Jennifer Hinton at the University of Lund to an Op-ed by Malte Andersson and Frank Götmark. But will the poor majority consent to…
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Earth’s nature is being ravaged by population growth
Humanity’s rapid expansion leads to environmental destruction, starvation and ravaged biodiversity. Population growth needs to be ended as soon as possible for sustainability. By Malte Andersson and Frank Götmark Published 2024-01-02 in Svenska Dagbladet, morning newspaper in Sweden (translated by TOP) In 1800, the world’s population was 1 billion, but in 2022 we exceeded 8…
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Ecological Footprint and Sustainable Population
With humanity currently in overshoot, societal changes must be enacted to return to sustainable levels. While either a country’s ecological footprint or population size could be altered to achieve the necessary level, combined efforts on both fronts would be most effective. By Denis Garnier, president of Démographie Responsable A sustainable population corresponds to the total…
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EurASP Statement on Migration
The European Alliance for a Sustainable Population (eurASP) is a coalition of groups with the mission to raise awareness about the impact of human population, its size and density, on planet Earth. It includes groups from seven European countries. Recently they issued the following statement on migration. by The European Alliance for a Sustainable Population…
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Overpopulation as a local problem
Overpopulation is commonly associated with global ecological overshoot, but it can occur at any level from the local to the global. Ecological overshoot in industrialised countries is complicated by labour migration, especially in urban areas. Population pressure on top of ecological overshoot should force these countries to reconsider overly permissive immigration policies. by Jan van…
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How to Fix the Planet, the Easy Way
To avoid disastrous deterioration of Earth’s climate and biosphere, humanity has to reduce its demands on nature. Fewer births and a falling population is no quick fix, but compared with voluntary austerity, it has many more up-sides than down-sides. by Jon Austen Scientists are reporting that there is an existential threat to life on Earth.…
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How environmental professionals acknowledge overpopulation – and then ignore it
We can have an environmentalism that ignores the fundamental causes of environmental problems, including lucrative careers treating overshoot’s many symptoms. Just not a successful environmentalism. by Leon Kolankiewicz Veteran population campaigners like me have long lamented the fact that at both the national and international scales, the environmental establishment (Big Green) and climate activists alike…
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Procreation and Consumption in the Real World
The cause of global environmental decline is clear: an immense and rapidly growing human economy. In response, environmentalists should advocate policies leading to fewer people and lower per capita consumption, not one instead of the other. Addressing both provides our best hope of creating sustainable societies and preserving Earth’s remaining biodiversity. by Philip Cafaro There…
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What you should know – but didn’t know to ask – about overshoot and the ‘population question’
William Rees explores the nature of humanity’s relationship with energy and the ecosphere, and reaches the unsettling conclusion that a population ‘correction’ is in the offing. By William Rees What would you think if someone called you out as a ‘dissipative structure’? Or better, claimed that you were a ‘thermodynamically far-from-equilibrium dissipative structure’? Chances are,…
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Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems
Then again, neither is anything else. The long lag time between fertility reduction and population stabilization is a key reason we need to address excessive human numbers sooner rather than later. by Phil Cafaro There’s an argument one often hears that goes like this: “sure, population is important. But we need to reduce our environmental…
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Walk the talk: the world needs more Gretas and fewer Leonardos
People in rich countries must rein in their consumption, but the hypocrisy of high-profile environment advocates makes them poor role models, argues Gaia Baracetti. By Gaia Baracetti This is an overpopulation blog, but its authors have made it clear that overconsumption is a problem too, and that the two are, as it is often said,…
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Earth Overshoot Day reminds us how far we are from sustainability
On 2 August, humanity will have used up its quota of renewable resources for 2023, according to Ecological Footprint analyses. But this barely scratches the surface of understanding the overshoot predicament we now face. By Jane O’Sullivan Earth Overshoot Day falls on 2 August this year. This is the day on which, according to the…
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Big Australia needs rethink on World Population Day 2023
Another UN World Population Day passed with the UN focussing on anything but population growth. Australia’s population is growing faster than most, with sustainability not on the government’s radar, as Stephen Williams laments. By Stephen Williams I don’t pay much attention to awareness days, but I make an exception for World Population Day, first observed…
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Population’s effects on biodiversity: evidence from recent scientific literature
A lot of great scientific work has been done lately on population and biodiversity, spanning all areas of the globe. A new study from TOP describes this work and summarizes its main lessons. by The Overpopulation Project Earlier this year, Phil, Pernilla and Frank released A Bibliography of Recent Scientific Work on Population and Biodiversity…
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Wildlife in decline: the impact of human population growth and consumption
In a short film about wildlife loss, Nastaran Rahnama takes a broad approach, investigating food sold in the UK, its production far away, and the links to population growth and declining large mammals. By Nastaran Rahnama In my lifetime including living in Iran, England, and traveling, I noticed that the natural world and the sound…
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Why Overpopulation Should Be a Women’s Issue
The costs of overpopulation and lack of family planning access fall disproportionately on women. Securing women’s rights and ecological sustainability depend on a clear-eyed understanding of this. This raises the question of why there are not more women who are actively involved in the issue of human overpopulation. By Karen Shragg and Madeline Weld An observation…
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The Population Factor back by popular demand
In 2020 and 2021, I recorded two seasons of the TV show The Population Factor. Each episode features in-depth conversations focused on a particular aspect of the population/environment connection. Check out seasons one (hour-long episodes) and two (half-hour episodes), all available for free streaming at the links below. by Phil Cafaro Season 1 Episode 1.…
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To Advance Humanity and Save Nature We Need a Common Agenda
Problems caused by rapid population growth, environmental degradation and climate disruption are harming human welfare and the natural world. These problems are largely addressed separately, with little common understanding or integration of efforts. Our recent paper, Advancing the Welfare of People and the Planet with a Common Agenda for Reproductive Justice, Population, and the Environment,…
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Adversity for Biodiversity: A Reflection on My Experience at COP15
The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework1 adopted in December 2022 by representatives of most of the world’s national governments is inadequate to halt and reverse the disturbing loss of biodiversity globally. Concerted efforts to increase the new Framework’s ambition were dismissed and ultimately ignored. Human overshoot – the collective impacts of more than eight billion people…
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A British perspective on population and biodiversity
A distinguished scientist’s new book makes the case that more people means less wildlife, in the United Kingdom and globally. This excellent offering is a must-read for anyone interested in the connection between human numbers and biodiversity protection. by Phil Cafaro For Trevor Beebe, the issue of people crowding out other species surfaced early in…
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The imaginary world of Earth4All’s low population projections
A new report from Earth4All says world population will peak below 9 billion. While it celebrates this result and says we must work to get it even lower, this unrealistically low projection itself is likely to have the opposite effect. by Jane O’Sullivan Last week a consortium under the name of Earth4All published new population…
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Do three Pacific islands provide lessons for achieving a sustainable human population?
These islands were more-or-less isolated, microcosms that perhaps tell us what is going to happen with the global population. Anthropological accounts also describe remarkable forms of birth control. Do they tell us anything about how to achieve sustainable populations today? By Frank Götmark Easter Island, and historical background One of the most debated questions…
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Cultured meat and the lifeless world
By attempting to avoid animal suffering, are we depriving them of life? Is lab-cultured ‘meat’ enlightened environmentalism, or just another attempt to cheat limits to growth, divorcing us further from the natural world? Gaia Baracetti reflects on her sheep, her fields, food culture and the moral pitfalls of seductive new technologies. by Gaia Baracetti Many…
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