Climate change is now unequivocally an emergency according to the latest report from the IPCC. Our only hope lies in extremely rapid abandonment of fossil fuels and reversal of forest loss. But these lifeline scenarios also assume birth rates plummet in high-fertility regions. Jane O’Sullivan offers a reality check. By Jane O'Sullivan The Intergovernmental Panel … Continue reading The demographic fantasies of the IPCC
Category: Scenarios
What is the optimal human population? An eminent economist weighs in
Efforts to specify the optimal human population on Earth are as complex as they are controversial. A recent book from Cambridge University economist Sir Partha Dasgupta develops a theoretically rigorous approach to this perennial question, finding that an optimal human population might range from 500 million to 5 billion. by Phil Cafaro It is gratifying … Continue reading What is the optimal human population? An eminent economist weighs in
TOP publishes new paper on the potential environmental impacts of EU immigration policy
Last year, TOP researchers published new policy-based population projections for the European Union. In a new companion piece, we explore the impacts of alternative immigration policies on two important EU environmental goals: reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and improved biodiversity conservation. We find that in both cases, less immigration, leading to smaller populations, will make … Continue reading TOP publishes new paper on the potential environmental impacts of EU immigration policy
Know the Numbers! TOP unveils new interactive population projections for the European Union
by Philip Cafaro In my experience teaching environmental ethics to college students and advocating for sustainable policies in the United States, the biggest obstacle to good discussions about population matters is ignorance about the numbers. How many people live in the United States? My students don’t know. Many environmentalists don’t know. What will the US … Continue reading Know the Numbers! TOP unveils new interactive population projections for the European Union
New EU population projections published
Researchers at TOP have published new population projections for all twenty-eight member countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole. These projections differ from the 2019 United Nations’ Population Division projections and other recent projections in two main ways. First, they project a wider range of fertility and migration scenarios farther … Continue reading New EU population projections published
Imagine
Mahatma Gandhi said: “Earth provides enough to satisfy every man’s need but not every man’s greed.” What is then the “right” lifestyle, which we all should adopt to be sustainable? It depends on how many people there are on the Earth. Sustainability does not depend only on lifestyle, but also on how many people share … Continue reading Imagine
Part 2 Review of “Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline”
Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline claims that (a) life on earth is stressed but coping with the present level of human impact; (b) global population will peak in 2050; (c) subsequent population decline will alleviate ecological problems; and (d) countries with populations that are only slowly growing should act now to boost … Continue reading Part 2 Review of “Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline”
“Overpopulation threatens the world’s food supply, United Nations warns”
That was the front-page headline in the New York Times last Thursday, August 8th, announcing a new report from the IPCC, “Climate Change and Land.” I’m kidding, of course. The actual headline read “Climate Change Threatens the World’s Food Supply, United Nations Warns,” and the article did not mention population once. By Philip Cafaro The … Continue reading “Overpopulation threatens the world’s food supply, United Nations warns”
How should environmentalists think about immigration?
Between toxic calls for immigration controls based on racial criteria and hyperbolic denunciations of any mention of population issues as “ecofascist,” the room for intelligent and honest discussion of immigration policy is being gobbled up from both the Left and the Right. Yet the issue is too important to leave to the yahoos or the … Continue reading How should environmentalists think about immigration?
World Population Prospects 2019 – good news or bad?
By Jane O’Sullivan The new United Nations projections for global population tempt complacency by lowering the estimate for growth across this century, but lacks justification for this lower figure. This could perversely counter the UN’s own message that these projections depend in increasing global efforts to ensure “further improvements in access to family planning information … Continue reading World Population Prospects 2019 – good news or bad?
Does Sweden need immigration to support its aging population?
In Sweden, politicians and the media often claim that the country needs high rates of immigration to meet the needs of an aging population. This claim lacks support: rigorous demographic and economic analyses indicate that immigration instead entails an increased dependency burden and a poorer economy. By Malte Andersson & Frank Götmark In the spring … Continue reading Does Sweden need immigration to support its aging population?
More and more people living on the planet is cause for concern
TOP assisting researcher, Patrícia Dérer, was recently interviewed for the Hungarian newspaper, 444. The article, shortened and translated to English, includes highlights from her interview where she discusses the conditional nature of population projections, the link between population and biodiversity, the declining population of eastern Europe, successful family planning programs, and much more. By Zsolt … Continue reading More and more people living on the planet is cause for concern
The implicit population hypothesis hidden within EU Green party platforms
By Phil Cafaro In the run up to elections to the European Parliament in May, 2019, the coalition of European Green parties has put forth a statement of principles and political goals: “Priorities for 2019: What European Greens Fight For.” Organized around twelve key goals, all in line with “core Green values that we pursue … Continue reading The implicit population hypothesis hidden within EU Green party platforms
Review of “Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline” Part 1
By John McKeown Empty Planet moves confidently from an optimistic premise to unwarranted conclusions. It has been reviewed favourably by Steven Pinker, The Wall Street Journal and the New Statesman, among others. Its premise is that world population will peak far lower and sooner than the UN forecasts, and that because of a faster-than-expected decline in … Continue reading Review of “Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline” Part 1
New policy-based population projections for the European Union, with a consideration of the environmental implications
by The Overpopulation Project Team Researchers at The Overpopulation Project are pleased to present new population projections out to 2100 for the countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole, in a new working paper (that turned into a published paper in October 2019 - the editor). These projections differ from … Continue reading New policy-based population projections for the European Union, with a consideration of the environmental implications