The Overpopulation Project
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Category: Migration
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A useful tool to explore future population possibilities
Our World in Data has recently published a population projection tool that readers will likely find useful. Whether the trends and possibilities it illustrates breed complacency or urgency remains to be seen. by Philip Cafaro Within the past decade, Our World in Data (OWID) has emerged as a leading purveyor of global economic, health, and…
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Housing affordability improves when population growth eases
Whether immigration fuels the housing crisis is hotly debated. Recent wide fluctuations in population growth have provided a natural experiment. The data are in: slowing population growth makes housing more affordable. by Jane O’Sullivan In the past two decades, many high-income countries have endured unprecedented increases in the cost of homes to buy or rent.…
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Watershed Woes
Despite half a century of efforts to improve water quality and restore fisheries in America’s Chesapeake Bay, its ecological condition continues to decline. A new study quantifies the environmental problems within the Chesapeake Bay watershed, explores their causes, and discusses possible futures. by Philip Cafaro As the third largest estuary on Earth, the Chesapeake Bay…
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Making sense of Trump’s immigration crackdown
Two weeks ago, the latest crackdown on a U.S. “sanctuary city” led to tragedy, after a federal agent shot a protester to death in Minneapolis. We interview Karen Shragg, a Minnesota native and long-time overpopulation activist, on the current situation in the Twin Cities and where we go from here. by The Overpopulation Project Over…
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Housing Costs a Matter of Supply and Demand
The Trump administration’s favors to big business threaten America’s environment. But its immigration crackdown has sparked welcome debates about the costs and benefits of continued growth, including its impact on affordable housing. by Henry Barbaro and Philip Cafaro Last month, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance argued that a surge in illegal immigration has pushed housing…
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Why is Africa’s extreme population growth ignored, despite very serious consequences? And how will Europe respond?
Continued rapid global population growth is unsustainable, but the media instead focus on low birth rates in developed countries. Most future growth will be in Africa, where young people want to emigrate to Europe or other developed regions. How will EU countries act in the face of Africa’s extreme population growth and increasing migration? By…
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It’s not racist to say: we are full
Should migrants be “blamed” for rising house prices? Or should we set aside blame and acknowledge that population growth, whatever the source, has some negative impacts? by Gaia Baracetti I recently had the good fortune of visiting Vancouver, a city where I used to live a long time ago. While still beautiful, it appeared to me…
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For the sake of food security, we must address population numbers
On World Population Day, Jenny Goldie reminds us that food is humanity’s most basic and most vulnerable necessity, but reducing the number of mouths to feed remains off the food security agenda. by Jenny Goldie As a child, the thought of other children going to bed hungry upset me. Later, I began university studies in…
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A new sustainability initiative of the Swiss People’s Party
While population growth lies at the root of many environmental problems, concerned citizens often feel disempowered from addressing it. A popular initiative in Switzerland may provide a blueprint for activists in other developed countries. by Roland Schmutz After Swiss voters narrowly rejected joining the European Economic Area in 1992, the European Union and Switzerland began…
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Pronatalism on the Rise to Counter Growing Push for Gender Equality
Pronatalists try to present their ideology as promoting the security of the family, but it is linked to the far-right agenda, uses falsified data to prove their points, and counteracts gender equality. By Nandita Bajaj There’s an insidious new tactic emerging for selling right-wing ideology to wider audiences, evident in [the September 2023] Budapest Demographic…
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Declining population and GDP growth
There is a general idea among businesspeople and mainstream economists that a decreasing population is not good for the economy. Our empirical work on countries experiencing population decline suggests that a declining population can bring about changes that reduce unemployment, increase wages, and lead to a larger real GDP per capita. by Theodore Lianos and…
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EurASP Statement on Migration
The European Alliance for a Sustainable Population (eurASP) is a coalition of groups with the mission to raise awareness about the impact of human population, its size and density, on planet Earth. It includes groups from seven European countries. Recently they issued the following statement on migration. by The European Alliance for a Sustainable Population…
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Overpopulation as a local problem
Overpopulation is commonly associated with global ecological overshoot, but it can occur at any level from the local to the global. Ecological overshoot in industrialised countries is complicated by labour migration, especially in urban areas. Population pressure on top of ecological overshoot should force these countries to reconsider overly permissive immigration policies. by Jan van…
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Subsidies for large families in Sweden impair integration of immigrants
The family supplement, which gives extra financial aid for each additional child, was implemented in Sweden in 1982 at a time of falling birth rates. It now contributes to lock-in effects for immigrant women. Abolishing this supplement and limiting the child allowance to the first two children would help reduce social exclusion and public spending,…
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Why Europeans are worried about African babies
Any time a Westerner expresses preoccupation about very high birth rates in a poor country, the conversation immediately turns to racism. Let’s dig deeper. by Gaia Baracetti Let’s not start with Prince William for once. Let’s begin with the great Italian poet Giovanni Pascoli. He was one of those rare rural poets who actually knew…
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An Environmental Impact Statement on US Immigration Policy
What impact does US immigration policy have on greenhouse gas emissions, habitat preservation, or water and air pollution? Episode six of The Population Factor on Earthx TV addresses these questions, while episode seven, the final episode of season one, discusses how declining human populations open up new opportunities for ecological restoration. by The Overpopulation Project…
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Pandemic reduces migration, sky does not fall in
Political leaders often bray about the need for continued population growth to benefit “the Economy.” In Australia, Covid-19 has provided a real-world test of the impacts of reduced migration and decreased population growth. So far, those impacts appear largely positive. by Kelvin Thomson Population activists concerned about the damage that rapid growth is doing to…
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Demographers fail to acknowledge the effect of population growth on climate change
A recently published article asked European demographers about their attitudes towards climate change and population growth. It shows that while most demographers are in agreement on the need to act on climate change, the effect of population growth is largely not understood. By The Overpopulation Project An article published in March this year in the…
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Immigration restrictions helped lead to Martin Luther King’s success
The success of Martin Luther King Jr. and the American civil rights movement was made possible in part through restrictions on immigration. With these restrictions, companies could no longer rely on cheap imported labor, instead having to compete for workers through increased wages and better working conditions. This is a reprint of a post first…
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Defending the nation-state
Imagine there’s no countries. It isn’t hard to do. Serving our corporate masters. And pasting smiles on our faces, too … Or better yet, imagine a world where citizens control their own destinies, within a peaceful and environmentally sustainable international order. That’s the real way forward. by the Honorable Kelvin Thomson I am a big…
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Australia’s Population Ponzi Scheme
The current economic system in Australia is a Ponzi scheme based on maintaining positive GDP through migration. Populations of native species are plummeting and people are faced with increased job insecurity and housing costs, all of which are side effects of the Australian government’s ongoing drive for an ever increasing population. by Kelvin Thomson In…
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Climate refugees or overpopulation escapees?
In recent years, migrants fleeing overpopulation and lack of economic opportunity have been rebranded as “climate refugees” by corporate media looking to justify open borders. But expanding migration will simply fuel continued population growth, leading to greater resource consumption, higher greenhouse gas emissions and worse climate change. It’s a Ponzi scheme perpetuated by falsehoods that’s…
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TOP publishes new paper on the potential environmental impacts of EU immigration policy
Last year, TOP researchers published new policy-based population projections for the European Union. In a new companion piece, we explore the impacts of alternative immigration policies on two important EU environmental goals: reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and improved biodiversity conservation. We find that in both cases, less immigration, leading to smaller populations, will make…
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Know the Numbers! TOP unveils new interactive population projections for the European Union
by Philip Cafaro In my experience teaching environmental ethics to college students and advocating for sustainable policies in the United States, the biggest obstacle to good discussions about population matters is ignorance about the numbers. How many people live in the United States? My students don’t know. Many environmentalists don’t know. What will the US…
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New EU population projections published
Researchers at TOP have published new population projections for all twenty-eight member countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole. These projections differ from the 2019 United Nations’ Population Division projections and other recent projections in two main ways. First, they project a wider range of fertility and migration scenarios farther…
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How should environmentalists think about immigration?
Between toxic calls for immigration controls based on racial criteria and hyperbolic denunciations of any mention of population issues as “ecofascist,” the room for intelligent and honest discussion of immigration policy is being gobbled up from both the Left and the Right. Yet the issue is too important to leave to the yahoos or the…
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Does Sweden need immigration to support its aging population?
In Sweden, politicians and the media often claim that the country needs high rates of immigration to meet the needs of an aging population. This claim lacks support: rigorous demographic and economic analyses indicate that immigration instead entails an increased dependency burden and a poorer economy. By Malte Andersson & Frank Götmark In the spring…
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More and more people living on the planet is cause for concern
TOP assisting researcher, Patrícia Dérer, was recently interviewed for the Hungarian newspaper, 444. The article, shortened and translated to English, includes highlights from her interview where she discusses the conditional nature of population projections, the link between population and biodiversity, the declining population of eastern Europe, successful family planning programs, and much more. By Zsolt…
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The implicit population hypothesis hidden within EU Green party platforms
By Phil Cafaro In the run up to elections to the European Parliament in May, 2019, the coalition of European Green parties has put forth a statement of principles and political goals: “Priorities for 2019: What European Greens Fight For.” Organized around twelve key goals, all in line with “core Green values that we pursue…
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New Australian population plan will be meaningless
By Stephen Williams Without a fundamental change to economic thinking, Australia will continue down the dystopian road, argues Stephen Williams. [The Prime Minister of Australia], Scott Morrison, met with state and territory leaders in Adelaide recently for the COAG chinwag. Topping the list of agenda items was population. I will try and summarise the population problem as succinctly…
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New policy-based population projections for the European Union, with a consideration of the environmental implications
by The Overpopulation Project Team Researchers at The Overpopulation Project are pleased to present new population projections out to 2100 for the countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole, in a new working paper (that turned into a published paper in October 2019 – the editor). These projections differ from…
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Population growth will make it harder to meet EU climate goals, while stable or declining populations will help cut greenhouse gas emissions in the EU
By Patricia Dérer In the following exercise, we demonstrate how different migration and fertility-influencing policies can lead to large differences in future annual greenhouse gas emissions, and in cumulative emissions throughout the century in the European Union. We present nine scenarios representing migration and fertility policies leading to stable, declining, or growing populations. The scenarios…
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Immigration ethics for a world of limits
by Philip Cafaro Most political liberals and most academics across the developed world support expansive immigration policies, often up to and including free movement and settlement across national boundaries (“open borders”). They may agree to limit immigration for tactical reasons, because their benighted fellow citizens are not willing to be more generous. But they remain…
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Continuing a dialogue on immigration, population growth and the environment
Two weeks ago The Overpopulation Project researchers published an opinion piece in Svenska Dagbladet titled “Environmental concerns call for reduced immigration”. In it we discussed the demographic implications of Swedish immigration policy and considered the potential environmental impacts of future population growth. Our essay called forth numerous thoughtful responses, including a joint reply by 41…
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Starting a dialogue on immigration, population growth and the environment
Recently The Overpopulation Project researchers published an opinion piece in the national newspaper Svenska Dagbladet titled “Environmental concerns call for reduced immigration”. In it, we discuss the demographic implications of Swedish immigration policy and consider the potential environmental impacts of future population growth. This essay was one of the newspaper’s most widely read/downloaded for the month and…
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Recent blog posts
- Partha Dasgupta’s new book is a must read
- A useful tool to explore future population possibilities
- The role of mortality in fertility transition studies
- Population growth is still rapid. Has the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) forgotten family planning programs?
- The Most Appropriate Response to Falling Birthrates? Embrace Them
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