The Overpopulation Project
TOP – Research and Outreach
Too many people consuming too much
Category: birth rate
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The Most Appropriate Response to Falling Birthrates? Embrace Them
Many governments are panicking over declining birthrates, but efforts to reverse the trend are ineffective and undermine reproductive freedom. Falling birthrates should instead be celebrated as a sign of increased reproductive agency among women. By Nandita Bajaj As birthrates continue to decline in many industrialized countries, anxious governments are running out of schemes to keep…
14 comments on The Most Appropriate Response to Falling Birthrates? Embrace Them -
Is Legal Abortion Required for Sustainable Fertility?
Our planet can’t sustain an ever-growing number of humans, but many countries have already reached below-replacement birth rates enabling a future rebalancing of humans with nature. While modern contraceptive technologies deservedly take most of the credit, how important has abortion access been? by Richard Grossman, MD, MPH All readers should be aware that globally, humans…
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Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
Pronatalistic alarmism about an oncoming economic crisis driven by a decline in birth rates is largely unfounded. In reality, the average number of children per woman in the US has stayed relatively consistent in recent decades, and technological advancements and increased workforce participation mean that the proportion of workers can remain stable at lower fertility…
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Trump denies women in need access to contraception
The recent dismantling of USAID bodes ill for women’s health in some of the world’s poorest countries. America can and should do better. by Jenny Goldie For several decades, there were major gains globally in access to family planning and reproductive health services. The US Government contributed significantly to this progress through its Agency for International Development…
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The imminence (or otherwise) of depopulation
Whether you see a peak and decline of world population as a good thing or a bad thing, lots of people are speculating that it is imminent. Can we believe them? Jane O’Sullivan According to the most recent United Nations projections, the world population will peak sixty years from now at around 10.3 billion. Lately,…
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Thirty years is too long to turn a blind eye to world population growth
September 13 marks thirty years since the United Nations International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo effectively denounced population stabilisation as a development goal. The consequences have been disastrous. by Jane O’Sullivan The United Nations Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo in September 1994 profoundly shifted the UN’s approach to…
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Losing Our Minds
In the 1970’s the leading intellectuals in the United States were concerned about overpopulation. Fifty years later, the best and brightest minds in America now think we are running out of people. What the hell is going on? by Brad Meiklejohn “Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.” –…
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World population revised upwards again
On 11 July, the United Nations published its new population estimates and projections. While trumpeting the promise of a lower global peak as “a hopeful sign [for] reduced environmental pressures” in the press release, they don’t mention there are now 43 million more people than they anticipated as recently as 2022. Not such a hopeful…
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New US population projection tool under construction
TOP is developing a new population projection tool for the United States, based on US Census Bureau methodology and data. Check it out! You can run your own US population projections under different fertility and immigration scenarios — and help us improve the projection tool with your suggestions. by Philip Cafaro One of our more…
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Religion affects birth rates
The global human population will increase by 2.4 billion to 2088, according to the UN. Birth rates are high in some parts of the world, leading to continued population growth. In Africa and parts of Asia, and within Muslim countries and communities, religiosity promotes high birth rates. This role of religion could, however, potentially be…
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Overpopulation Is Still a Huge Problem: An Interview with Jane O’Sullivan
Despite reports that world population is peaking and fertility rates dropping, the human population is still growing at an unrelenting and unsustainable pace. In an interview by Richard Heinberg, Jane O’Sullivan sets the record straight. By Richard Heinberg, originally published by Resilience.org In February, I interviewed biochemist Chris Bystroff, whose peer-reviewed analysis suggests that world…
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Birth rates have been falling in Nigeria, though slowly. What factors cause declining fertility, according to educated people in Nigeria?
Since 1970, birth rates have been falling in most developing countries. An earlier study by TOP researchers found that Swedes generally think that improved living conditions, including economic and educational progress, are the cause for declining fertility. What do Nigerians, living in a developing country, think about declining fertility in their country? By Frank Götmark…
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The Other Side of Reproductive Coercion
Reproductive coercion comes in different forms – forced sterilization as well as forcing women to bear unwanted children. Both forms must be fought. By Richard Grossman Reproductive health abuses, especially coercion, have turned many people away from concern about human population. I agree: reproductive coercion should be shunned. Examples of coercive actions include sterilization of…
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Pronatalism on the Rise to Counter Growing Push for Gender Equality
Pronatalists try to present their ideology as promoting the security of the family, but it is linked to the far-right agenda, uses falsified data to prove their points, and counteracts gender equality. By Nandita Bajaj There’s an insidious new tactic emerging for selling right-wing ideology to wider audiences, evident in [the September 2023] Budapest Demographic…
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Declining population and GDP growth
There is a general idea among businesspeople and mainstream economists that a decreasing population is not good for the economy. Our empirical work on countries experiencing population decline suggests that a declining population can bring about changes that reduce unemployment, increase wages, and lead to a larger real GDP per capita. by Theodore Lianos and…
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How to Fix the Planet, the Easy Way
To avoid disastrous deterioration of Earth’s climate and biosphere, humanity has to reduce its demands on nature. Fewer births and a falling population is no quick fix, but compared with voluntary austerity, it has many more up-sides than down-sides. by Jon Austen Scientists are reporting that there is an existential threat to life on Earth.…
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Delusional population projections lead us sleepwalking into catastrophe
Recent United Nations population projections paint a comforting picture of immanent population stabilization. But what if they are wrong? Global population growth does not appear to be slowing as quickly as UN demographers have predicted, making widespread famines and run-away climate change more likely in the coming decades. By Jane O’Sullivan The Elon Musks of…
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Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems
Then again, neither is anything else. The long lag time between fertility reduction and population stabilization is a key reason we need to address excessive human numbers sooner rather than later. by Phil Cafaro There’s an argument one often hears that goes like this: “sure, population is important. But we need to reduce our environmental…
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Earth Overshoot Day reminds us how far we are from sustainability
On 2 August, humanity will have used up its quota of renewable resources for 2023, according to Ecological Footprint analyses. But this barely scratches the surface of understanding the overshoot predicament we now face. By Jane O’Sullivan Earth Overshoot Day falls on 2 August this year. This is the day on which, according to the…
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Even with strong early family planning programs, 50 years or more are needed to halt population growth
Low birth rates are often regarded as problematic by major media, which overlook the perils of population increase. Here we show that unsustainable long-term population growth prevails in developing countries, despite historical family planning and gradually sinking birth rates. One lesson is that further reduced rates are urgently needed in high-fertility countries, in Africa and…
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The Population Factor back by popular demand
In 2020 and 2021, I recorded two seasons of the TV show The Population Factor. Each episode features in-depth conversations focused on a particular aspect of the population/environment connection. Check out seasons one (hour-long episodes) and two (half-hour episodes), all available for free streaming at the links below. by Phil Cafaro Season 1 Episode 1.…
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Making media seriously discuss population growth and its consequences – a case in Sweden
Newspapers, radio, and TV in many countries usually avoid the problems of population growth and overpopulation. But by focused work it is possible to get the attention of mainstream media. This recently happened in Sweden, to judge from a TV program broadcast 13 April. By Frank Götmark and Malte Andersson How can you highlight the…
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The imaginary world of Earth4All’s low population projections
A new report from Earth4All says world population will peak below 9 billion. While it celebrates this result and says we must work to get it even lower, this unrealistically low projection itself is likely to have the opposite effect. by Jane O’Sullivan Last week a consortium under the name of Earth4All published new population…
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Do three Pacific islands provide lessons for achieving a sustainable human population?
These islands were more-or-less isolated, microcosms that perhaps tell us what is going to happen with the global population. Anthropological accounts also describe remarkable forms of birth control. Do they tell us anything about how to achieve sustainable populations today? By Frank Götmark Easter Island, and historical background One of the most debated questions…
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Religion and religiosity pose challenges for fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is the only world region projected to continue population growth in the second half of this century, and even beyond 2100. In SSA, religion and religiosity are major factors contributing to the persistent high birth rates. A new publication by TOP co-workers is reviewing the relationship between human fertility and religions in…
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Mainstream Media Blindness to China’s Depopulation Dividend
China’s population has started decreasing, which the media reports as an economic disaster. In his article originally published at Overpopulation News, Jon Austen explores how the media ignores the benefits of such a decline and finds agreement among commenters. By Jon Austen China has had its first fall in population in 61 years. The media…
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Eight Billion – Our Greatest Mistake
According to the United Nations Population Fund, reaching a global human population of 8 billion is an achievement to be celebrated. In “a world of infinite possibilities,” they state, “imagine the boundless paths 8 billion can take.” Rather than taking refuge in irresponsible fantasies, it’s time our bloated societies reckoned honesty with demographic reality. By…
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In America, reproductive rights have fallen prey to a creeping theocracy
The United States of America is becoming a theocracy. The Dobbs decision has bypassed the Congress by having the Supreme Court establish a de facto religion which forces unwilling women to become mothers. By Richard Grossman, MD © 2022 For years I have hesitated to write about the effect of religion on population. My hesitation has…
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The per capita fallacy
Are many tiny ecological footprints more virtuous than fewer, larger ones? Will they be better for the Earth, or easier to accomplish? These hard questions need to be asked as humanity hurtles past 8 billion people and deeper into ecological overshoot. By Gaia Baracetti You’ve all heard the argument: high birth rates in poor countries…
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Time for Sweden to resume focus on international family planning aid
Recent research suggests lack of contraception and high desired family size both hinder population stabilization in Africa. We call on the newly elected Swedish government to prioritize international family planning aid, resuming a valuable Swedish tradition. By Frank Götmark, Nordhild Wetzler, Malte Andersson, Carl Wahren, Karl-Erik Norrman An Op-Ed originally published in Svenska Dagbladet…
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The role of immigration in Italy’s recent election
How important were immigration issues in the recent electoral triumph of Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia party? TOP’s chief Italian correspondent gives us her analysis. by Gaia Baracetti History does repeat itself – but not in the obvious way. One could fear we’re witnessing a second March on Rome exactly a century after the first, but…
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Population and Cheap Labour
Herman Daly has made more fundamental contributions to specifying a truly sustainable economics than any economist of the past half century. At 85, he is still contributing to the development of ecological economics and still tossing off more memorable phrases in a short essay than most of us could work into a book. An example…
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The Natural Synergy between Population Stabilization and Reproductive Rights
In the second essay we are featuring from the Great Transition Initiative’s forum The Population Debate Revisited, Céline Delacroix highlights the win-win relationship between elevating women’s health, rights and autonomy and minimising population growth. Why then is the topic so unwelcome in international policy discourse? By Céline Delacroix Reading Ian Lowe’s opening essay to this…
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“Decline and Prosper!” A review of a comprehensive book about fertility by Vegard Skirbekk
A new book by the productive demographer Vegard Skirbekk has the commendable title Decline and Prosper!. It is a valuable resource, presenting much research on fertility around the world. It also raises questions about how to deal with high fertility and population growth in many countries. By Frank Götmark The book, in paperback from Palgrave…
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Recent blog posts
- Population growth is still rapid. Has the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) forgotten family planning programs?
- The Most Appropriate Response to Falling Birthrates? Embrace Them
- New paper defends a pragmatic definition of overpopulation
- Because everyone else is (not) doing it: How social pressures may be the key to understand family size preferences
- The Psychology of our Strange Overpopulation Taboo
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