The Overpopulation Project
TOP – Research and Outreach
Too many people consuming too much
Tag: Immigration
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Housing affordability improves when population growth eases
Whether immigration fuels the housing crisis is hotly debated. Recent wide fluctuations in population growth have provided a natural experiment. The data are in: slowing population growth makes housing more affordable. by Jane O’Sullivan In the past two decades, many high-income countries have endured unprecedented increases in the cost of homes to buy or rent.…
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Watershed Woes
Despite half a century of efforts to improve water quality and restore fisheries in America’s Chesapeake Bay, its ecological condition continues to decline. A new study quantifies the environmental problems within the Chesapeake Bay watershed, explores their causes, and discusses possible futures. by Philip Cafaro As the third largest estuary on Earth, the Chesapeake Bay…
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Making sense of Trump’s immigration crackdown
Two weeks ago, the latest crackdown on a U.S. “sanctuary city” led to tragedy, after a federal agent shot a protester to death in Minneapolis. We interview Karen Shragg, a Minnesota native and long-time overpopulation activist, on the current situation in the Twin Cities and where we go from here. by The Overpopulation Project Over…
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TOP end of year roundup
Thanks to our readers and supporters for an engaging and productive year. We look forward to hearing from you and sharing new work in the coming one. by The Overpopulation Project 2025 was Frank’s, Jane’s and Phil’s eighth year with The Overpopulation Project. Along with our ”truly TOP” research associate Pernilla Hansson, we continue to…
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Why is Africa’s extreme population growth ignored, despite very serious consequences? And how will Europe respond?
Continued rapid global population growth is unsustainable, but the media instead focus on low birth rates in developed countries. Most future growth will be in Africa, where young people want to emigrate to Europe or other developed regions. How will EU countries act in the face of Africa’s extreme population growth and increasing migration? By…
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It’s not racist to say: we are full
Should migrants be “blamed” for rising house prices? Or should we set aside blame and acknowledge that population growth, whatever the source, has some negative impacts? by Gaia Baracetti I recently had the good fortune of visiting Vancouver, a city where I used to live a long time ago. While still beautiful, it appeared to me…
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The Demographic Struggle Over International Migration
A large percentage of people want to emigrate to another country, but many people in destination countries are opposed to accepting large numbers of immigrants. International migration is a highly difficult issue with no simple solution. by Joseph Chamie Approximately 1.3 billion people, or 16% of the world’s population, wish to leave their country permanently,…
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The immigration impasse in Holland
The Dutch government has collapsed twice in succession because of disagreements about immigration policy. Now the leader of the party that won the last elections by a landslide has pulled out of the ruling coalition. Why is immigration such a big issue in The Netherlands? By Jan van Weeren Two years ago, the Dutch government…
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What’s up with America?
Some see a recent upsurge of fascism, or a unique malevolence in the current President. The reality is less dramatic: the continued erosion of American institutions, a long-term trend furthered by bankrupt ideologies. by Philip Cafaro A few months ago in this space, I wrote that Donald Trump’s obvious character flaws disqualified him as a…
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Is Homo sapiens an invasive species?
The global spread and increase of the human species is exceptional and seems unmatched in the animal kingdom. Some researchers suggest we resemble so-called invasive species. Does the label fit? By Frank Götmark (This a translation of a Swedish essay published in Svenska Dagbladet on 30 March, slightly modified) Japanese oyster, raccoon dog, lupine –…
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“America Needs More People”
That’s according to the editorial board of the New York Times, arguing for expanding immigration into the United States. Based on comments, most of their subscribers disagree. by Philip Cafaro By insisting that enforcing immigration limits is immoral, liberals in the U.S. have twice helped elect Donald Trump President. Facing a second Trump administration, some…
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The impact of immigration policy on future U.S. population size
Immigration will be the key factor determining whether populations in the developed world increase or decrease over the coming century. Newly published policy-based population projections illustrate this for the United States. by Philip Cafaro Population size helps determine human societies’ environmental impacts. Given that immigration is a key factor influencing the size of human populations,…
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Court ruling could lead to an environmental impact statement on US immigration policy
United States law requires that important federal policies and projects undergo environmental impact statements. While immigration policy has never been subjected to such an analysis, that might be about to change, thanks to a recent court ruling. by Philip Cafaro The U.S. National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) of 1969 mandates that any federal policy or…
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Trump or Harris: the implications for U.S. immigration policy
Who would you choose if you could vote in the upcoming U.S. presidential election? Who Americans choose has important implications for people around the world. Unfortunately, neither major party candidate is committed to ending U.S. population growth or creating an environmentally sustainable society. by Philip Cafaro Once every four years, I attend to my civic…
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‘Climate refugees’ and the question of limiting immigration: a response to Migration in Hotter Times
A recent discussion paper on climate refugees, Migration in Hotter Times: Humanity at Risk, does much to muddy the water without presenting practical solutions. by Jane O’Sullivan and Philip Cafaro Immigration is a deeply divisive topic, even among population activists. It is not uncommon to have a strong commitment to global population stabilisation while believing…
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New US population projection tool under construction
TOP is developing a new population projection tool for the United States, based on US Census Bureau methodology and data. Check it out! You can run your own US population projections under different fertility and immigration scenarios — and help us improve the projection tool with your suggestions. by Philip Cafaro One of our more…
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Green parties lose big in EU parliamentary elections by ignoring the relationship between immigration and environmental damage
Green and left-wing parties lost ground in recent elections to the European Union Parliament, in part by neglecting and even denying the relationship between population growth by immigration and environmental stress. They could have used the topic to their advantage, but failed to do so. Instead it became the flagship issue of the right. By…
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Time to vote!
Immigration is proving to be a hot topic in the run up to EU parliamentary elections. While the focus has been on immigration’s cultural and social effects, changes in immigration policy could also impact future population numbers across Europe. This has consequences for citizens, the environment and ecosystems. by Philip Cafaro According to the European…
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A new sustainability initiative of the Swiss People’s Party
While population growth lies at the root of many environmental problems, concerned citizens often feel disempowered from addressing it. A popular initiative in Switzerland may provide a blueprint for activists in other developed countries. by Roland Schmutz After Swiss voters narrowly rejected joining the European Economic Area in 1992, the European Union and Switzerland began…
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EurASP Statement on Migration
The European Alliance for a Sustainable Population (eurASP) is a coalition of groups with the mission to raise awareness about the impact of human population, its size and density, on planet Earth. It includes groups from seven European countries. Recently they issued the following statement on migration. by The European Alliance for a Sustainable Population…
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Overpopulation as a local problem
Overpopulation is commonly associated with global ecological overshoot, but it can occur at any level from the local to the global. Ecological overshoot in industrialised countries is complicated by labour migration, especially in urban areas. Population pressure on top of ecological overshoot should force these countries to reconsider overly permissive immigration policies. by Jan van…
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Strange bedfellows of sustainability: How identity politics obstructs the future of wilderness
Preserving wild places is key to protecting Earth’s biodiversity. In the United States and elsewhere, identity politics undermines the commitment to do so. by Karen Shragg Preserving wilderness is in the best interests of all of us, especially the four-legged and two-legged creatures with whom we share our countries. When people give other species room,…
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Gattopardi and cheap labor
Reflections from Italy on the wicked problem of unregulated and unregulatable immigration into Western Europe. by Gaia Baracetti I could never understand what animal exactly the gattopardo was supposed to be. A leopard? A cheetah? A mythical beast? For sure, none of those roams my country. But I, like most Italians, always understood the meaning…
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Australia’s population growth rate of nearly half a million ‘too high’
Australia is growing rapidly, in large part due to immigration. This causes strain on both infrastructure and the environment. By Sustainable Population Australia Sustainable Population Australia (SPA) considers Australia’s population growth rate in 2022 too high and called on the federal government to put a brake on immigration. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released…
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The Population Factor back by popular demand
In 2020 and 2021, I recorded two seasons of the TV show The Population Factor. Each episode features in-depth conversations focused on a particular aspect of the population/environment connection. Check out seasons one (hour-long episodes) and two (half-hour episodes), all available for free streaming at the links below. by Phil Cafaro Season 1 Episode 1.…
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Adversity for Biodiversity: A Reflection on My Experience at COP15
The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework1 adopted in December 2022 by representatives of most of the world’s national governments is inadequate to halt and reverse the disturbing loss of biodiversity globally. Concerted efforts to increase the new Framework’s ambition were dismissed and ultimately ignored. Human overshoot – the collective impacts of more than eight billion people…
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Herman Daly
TOP mourns the death of a giant: Herman Daly, co-founder of the discipline of ecological economics, champion of the steady-state economy and a long-time voice for sanity on population. We add our praise to the chorus. by The Overpopulation Project Herman Daly, Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Maryland, USA, passed away on…
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Time for Sweden to resume focus on international family planning aid
Recent research suggests lack of contraception and high desired family size both hinder population stabilization in Africa. We call on the newly elected Swedish government to prioritize international family planning aid, resuming a valuable Swedish tradition. By Frank Götmark, Nordhild Wetzler, Malte Andersson, Carl Wahren, Karl-Erik Norrman An Op-Ed originally published in Svenska Dagbladet…
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The role of immigration in Italy’s recent election
How important were immigration issues in the recent electoral triumph of Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia party? TOP’s chief Italian correspondent gives us her analysis. by Gaia Baracetti History does repeat itself – but not in the obvious way. One could fear we’re witnessing a second March on Rome exactly a century after the first, but…
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Population and Cheap Labour
Herman Daly has made more fundamental contributions to specifying a truly sustainable economics than any economist of the past half century. At 85, he is still contributing to the development of ecological economics and still tossing off more memorable phrases in a short essay than most of us could work into a book. An example…
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Subsidies for large families in Sweden impair integration of immigrants
The family supplement, which gives extra financial aid for each additional child, was implemented in Sweden in 1982 at a time of falling birth rates. It now contributes to lock-in effects for immigrant women. Abolishing this supplement and limiting the child allowance to the first two children would help reduce social exclusion and public spending,…
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Why Europeans are worried about African babies
Any time a Westerner expresses preoccupation about very high birth rates in a poor country, the conversation immediately turns to racism. Let’s dig deeper. by Gaia Baracetti Let’s not start with Prince William for once. Let’s begin with the great Italian poet Giovanni Pascoli. He was one of those rare rural poets who actually knew…
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An Environmental Impact Statement on US Immigration Policy
What impact does US immigration policy have on greenhouse gas emissions, habitat preservation, or water and air pollution? Episode six of The Population Factor on Earthx TV addresses these questions, while episode seven, the final episode of season one, discusses how declining human populations open up new opportunities for ecological restoration. by The Overpopulation Project…
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Pandemic reduces migration, sky does not fall in
Political leaders often bray about the need for continued population growth to benefit “the Economy.” In Australia, Covid-19 has provided a real-world test of the impacts of reduced migration and decreased population growth. So far, those impacts appear largely positive. by Kelvin Thomson Population activists concerned about the damage that rapid growth is doing to…
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Immigration restrictions helped lead to Martin Luther King’s success
The success of Martin Luther King Jr. and the American civil rights movement was made possible in part through restrictions on immigration. With these restrictions, companies could no longer rely on cheap imported labor, instead having to compete for workers through increased wages and better working conditions. This is a reprint of a post first…
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Australia’s Population Ponzi Scheme
The current economic system in Australia is a Ponzi scheme based on maintaining positive GDP through migration. Populations of native species are plummeting and people are faced with increased job insecurity and housing costs, all of which are side effects of the Australian government’s ongoing drive for an ever increasing population. by Kelvin Thomson In…
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Continuing a dialogue on immigration, population growth and the environment
Two weeks ago The Overpopulation Project researchers published an opinion piece in Svenska Dagbladet titled “Environmental concerns call for reduced immigration”. In it we discussed the demographic implications of Swedish immigration policy and considered the potential environmental impacts of future population growth. Our essay called forth numerous thoughtful responses, including a joint reply by 41…
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Starting a dialogue on immigration, population growth and the environment
Recently The Overpopulation Project researchers published an opinion piece in the national newspaper Svenska Dagbladet titled “Environmental concerns call for reduced immigration”. In it, we discuss the demographic implications of Swedish immigration policy and consider the potential environmental impacts of future population growth. This essay was one of the newspaper’s most widely read/downloaded for the month and…
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Recent blog posts
- Population growth is still rapid. Has the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) forgotten family planning programs?
- The Most Appropriate Response to Falling Birthrates? Embrace Them
- New paper defends a pragmatic definition of overpopulation
- Because everyone else is (not) doing it: How social pressures may be the key to understand family size preferences
- The Psychology of our Strange Overpopulation Taboo
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