With a population nearing 70 million, the UK is feeling the pressure on the housing and job markets. Stabilising the population would ease this pressure, giving more people access to affordable housing and strengthening wages, utlimately raising the quality of life for UK citizens.
by R. M. Smilie
Introduction
The United Kingdom (UK) has rarely been associated with overpopulation. Defined as when an environment cannot support those living within it, overpopulation has mainly been used to describe countries or regions where people struggle to access food and water. Yet, as the UK approaches a population of 70 million, pressure is continuing to build on the housing market, high-paying jobs are becoming increasingly rare and overall quality of life is falling, including for biodiversity(1). These are the symptoms of population growth outpacing infrastructure development as the UK approaches overpopulation, and they are set to worsen if left unaddressed.
To date, urban expansion has provided the additional jobs and housing required to accommodate a growing population, and despite being sufficient so far, it is ultimately unsustainable. This strategy facilitates overpopulation which is accompanied by poverty, food shortages and poor living standards.
Alternatively, a stable population could be created, where the number of people doesn’t increase or decrease over time. Not only is this model more sustainable in the long term, but it could improve current living standards in the UK by creating a housing market proportional to population need, a more valuable workforce and enable government investment to improve services instead of simply managing population growth. Overall, a stable population offers a chance to improve the current quality of life in the UK.
You may be thinking that overpopulation is a distant threat, but many countries are already suffering its consequences, with many more experiencing a deterioration in life quality due to population growth. Mumbai, for example, is a city of over 22 million people where existing infrastructure cannot support its population with over 50% of citizens left in slum housing(2). Even in highly developed nations such as Japan, housing standards have declined to the point where ‘coffin apartments’ – apartments so small they can be less than 3 meters long – are becoming commonplace(3). These cases encapsulate the reduction of modern living standards associated with large and dense populations.
In the UK, the effects are more subtle but no less significant. There are no coffin apartments, but declining housing quality, increasing housing prices disproportionate to salaries, and the cost-of-living crisis implies a steady decline of living standards. These issues can be partly attributed to population growth for two key reasons. First, increased demand for housing inflates prices and creates pressure for more low-cost accommodation, often leading to a decline in housing standards(4). Second, population growth expands the labour force, allowing employers to offer lower wages due to greater competition for jobs. As wages are influenced by the balance between labour supply and demand, a large workforce relative to the job market would suppress long-term income growth(5). Together these factors make housing increasingly unaffordable and reduce expendable income, hindering the improvement of living conditions for many people. Some may argue that housing prices and the cost-of-living crisis are influenced by a multitude of factors – and they would be correct. However, population growth is central to the pricing of essential goods such as housing, food, water, energy, and more. Therefore, as population increases, a greater demand for essentials leads to higher prices. This disproportionately affects families that spend a larger portion of their income on essential goods, widening wealth disparities.
How could a stable population address these issues?
In a stable population, access to housing would increase as new homes would be available for the existing population, not for accommodating an infinitely increasing number of people. As a result, access to housing would increase further in a stable population compared to a growing population for the same financial investment.
A housing market proportional to population demand creates a more accessible property market and lowers barriers to home ownership. In a growing population, this balance is unobtainable as constant demand for additional housing creates a persistent shortage that increases costs – a trend that will worsen with population growth. Opposition to population stability is likely to come from landlords and corporate property owners as it threatens to reduce the demand for housing – and the appreciation of their property assets – caused by population growth. However, residential homeowners would not be disadvantaged as a property would retain its relative purchasing power. Therefore, a proportional housing market benefits citizens as property becomes more aligned with wages, and more affordable.
The UK job market would benefit from a stable population by increasing the value of the workforce. This is because in a growing population, the number of jobseekers continues to rise, allowing employers to offer low wages and still fill the position which perpetuates a low quality of life. However, in a stable population, the competition decreases, pushing employers to offer a more competitive wage to attract workers which improves household income. Provided the UK economy remains competitive and stimulated by individual spending and government investment, a stable population would create a higher demand for workers which raises their value. This was the reality in Germany between 2012 and 2022 where workforce shortages were estimated to account for up to 19% of real wage increases(6). The opposite could be argued as true considering that more than half of the global labour force is situated in Asia and the Pacific – a region that has represented high-population density and cheap labour for many years(7). Additionally, as artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly powerful, its ability to replace the human workforce is improving. So much so, Goldman Sachs estimates up to 300 million jobs could be replaced by AI worldwide(8). In combination with an increasing population, AI risks mass unemployment and severe socio-economic issues. Population stability could help reduce this threat as a stable workforce combined with national investment in education and training, would produce highly skilled workers better equipped to find employment in an AI-driven economy.
Government investment into the UK would be more beneficial to citizens in a stable population as funding allocated to sustaining a growing population could be reallocated to underfunded services such as the National Health Service (NHS) For example, in the UK government 10-year infrastructure strategy (2025-2035), £39 billion has been pledged for affordable housing, at least £49 billion for expanding the NHS and £20 billion for new schools(9). This funding does not improve living standards in the UK but aims to accommodate a growing population, effectively declining living standards as funding is inadequate to mitigate increased stress on public services under a growing population. In a stable population this funding could be better spent improving services instead of expanding them. Overall, a stable population enables investment to be compounded over time and definitively improve living standards. Clearly there are many benefits to a stable population. With a national fertility rate of 1.34 that is well below replacement rate, the UK is well positioned to achieve one.
What would the effect be on immigration policy?
To achieve genuine population stability, effective immigration control is essential. Without it, overall population growth will continue despite achieving a low native birthrate, exacerbating pressure on living standards and public services. However, legal immigration should be welcomed—particularly when it brings in skilled workers and enriches the UK’s cultural landscape. The number of immigrants allowed to enter each year should align with population stability goals and workforce requirements. Sustained efforts to address illegal immigration are necessary to uphold border integrity and protect job security. While the UK has both a legal and moral obligation to accept genuine refugees, it can’t accommodate all those whose asylum claims are rejected. It must have avenues to deport failed asylum seekers, in order to stem the inflow of illegal migrants. A more effective way to help the world’s poor, of which the illegal migrants are a tiny share, is through international aid, especially supporting family planning to stem the overpopulation from which they flee.
Would a stable population diminish national security?
If the UK were to achieve a stable population, national defence strategies would need to adapt to ensure continued security in a world where some national populations continue to rise. Fortunately, advances in technology and shifts in modern warfare mean that a smaller, well-equipped population can remain more effective than a larger, growing population suffering overstretched budgets in its struggle to accommodate its growth. This is evident in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, where traditional, manpower-heavy combat has increasingly given way to technologically driven tactics, with drones and precision missiles playing a central role(10). Under these changes, a stable population wouldn’t necessarily diminish the defence capabilities of the UK. Instead, it would prompt a shift towards increased investment in advanced military technology, aligning the UK more closely with the demands of modern warfare.
Conclusion
In conclusion, stabilisation of the population presents an opportunity to improve the housing market, create a more valuable workforce and enable greater government investment into the UK. These outcomes collectively raise the quality of life and build a more sustainable, prosperous nation, whilst mitigating the inevitable strain on resources caused by unchecked growth. The ability of the population to advocate for national improvement defines a healthy democratic society, and currently, the UK stands at a point where change is not only possible but necessary. A stable population offers a potential solution that stands to benefit UK citizens greatly.
If you have any feedback on the text or are interested in supporting future work, please get in touch at rmsmilie@outlook.com.
References
1. Overpopulation Research Project (2023). A British perspective on population and biodiversity – The Overpopulation Project. [online, accessed 16 Sep. 2025].
2. Amit, R. (2020). Slums, Migrant Workers, and COVID-19 in Mumbai – Journal of Migration Affairs A Bi-Annual Journal. [online, accessed 3 Aug. 2025].
3. Miller, D. (2013). Living in a box: The tiny ‘coffin’ apartments of Tokyo which cost up to £400 a month to rent. [online] Mail Online
4. Homesight.org. (2024). The Impact of Population Growth on Housing Market Trends. [online].
5. Pettinger, T. (2017). Factors that explain wage inequality | Economics Help. [online]
6. Börschlein, E.-B., Bossler, M. and Popp, M. (2024). Scarce Workers, High Wages? SSRN Electronic Journal.
7. International Labour Organization (2022). Population and labour force. [online] ILOSTAT.
8. Vallance, C. (2023). AI Could Replace Equivalent of 300 Million Jobs. BBC News. [online] 28 Mar.
9. UK Infrastructure: A 10 Year Strategy. (2025).
10. Watling, J. and Reynolds, N. (2025). Tactical Developments During the Third Year of the Russo–Ukrainian War. [online] Rusi.org.
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