No need to hold COP 29: Just follow Japan’s lead!

Japan has accomplished the difficult task of reducing their emissions, mainly through its decreasing population.

by Terry Spahr

COP 28, the United Nations’ annual climate summit is happening right now in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. These climate conferences have been taking place since 1995 and as Axios reported, each and every year, save for temporary recessions, global emissions keep going up and up and up and up:

A graph showing global CO2 emissions by source from 1993 to 2023. All sources have increased - oil, coal, gas, and cement, although coal has increased the most

If there was a solution that was working, would the 70,000 attendees want to know about it?

Look no further than Japan, a country whose total emissions have been dropping by millions of tons every year since 2013.

Graph showing Japan's greenhouse gas emissions in carbon dioxide equivalents. It peaked at 1.41 billion tons in 2013 and has decreased to 1.15 billion tons in 2020.

In fact, Japan should be featured at COP 28, as a country that actually reduces greenhouse gas emissions instead of just talking about it. All 70,000 attendees should wake up, take note, and return to their respective countries and implement the same strategy.

But what exactly is Japan’s strategy????

World Bank data shows the typical Japanese citizen’s CO2 emissions have averaged approximately 9 tons per year since 2010. From a high of 9.91 tons in 2013 to a low of 8.54 tons in 2019. The reductions per capita have not decreased substantially.

In the same seven years in Japan from 2013 through 2019, CO2 emissions dropped 26,000,000 tons (that’s 26 MILLION TONS) annually!

What has led to this dramatic decline in emissions?

Japan’s solution has largely come about unintentionally and unexpectedly through its declining population. The country’s population peaked in 2009 and has been declining ever since. Last year alone saw a decline of approximately 700,000 people.

Graph showing the population size of Japan from 2011 to 2022. It shows a steady decrease from 128 million in 2011 to 125 million in 2022.

Japan saw a net decline of 2,435,000 people between 2013 and 2019  which accounts for the overwhelming reduction of the 21 million tons in annual emissions.

The incredible aspect is these declining emissions will continue in correlation with an expected further decline in its population. Japan in the meantime continues to experience a strong economy with an incredibly low 2.64% unemployment figure, and its Nikkei stock index is up over 25% year to date. It is a win-win for Japan, greater prosperity for its people, and less pollution and emissions for the environment.

If COP attendees effectively brought this same fact-based evidence home to their countries, envision how quickly we could begin to slow down and then reduce CO2 emissions. We wouldn’t need a COP 29, 30 or 31.  “If Japan can do it, so can the world!” 

Originally published by Earth Overshoot

Published

12 responses to “No need to hold COP 29: Just follow Japan’s lead!”

  1. gaiabaracetti Avatar

    Hmm… do import-related emissions count? Where does Japan stand now, in terms of per-capita emissions, compared to other countries?
    More importantly: what about everything else? Resource consumption, nuclear power and pollution, biodiversity (maybe ok because agriculture has been abandoned in favour of imports?), animal rights, water consumption, concrete, fish and other seafood…

    1. Philip Cafaro Avatar

      I’m sure these other aspects of Japan’s environmental record are a mixed bag, and are worth looking into. But I’m also sure that fewer people can help with all of them: pressure on biodiversity, water consumption, how much concrete is being poured … Fewer people is the environmental gift that keeps on giving!

      1. gaiabaracetti Avatar

        No argument there. Japan seems to be, like Italy (sorry), one of those wealthier countries that, having offshored a significant part of their food and textile production, are seeing the rewilding of marginal and mountainous areas and are fighting, without much success, rural “depopulation”. This would be a welcome trend if 1. it didn’t rely on massive imports of food and other resources from threatened ecosystems 2. it didn’t involve cramming people into unsustainable and often soulless megalopolises 3. it was accepted and not fought by governments, media and public opinion
        (4. people weren’t being mauled to death by bears)
        As we say in Italian, it’s just a short blanket that, no matter how you pull, always leaves part of you uncovered. You rewild here, de-wild there. All-around degrowth is what’s needed, except for the very poorest.

  2. Ed Avatar

    Cheapest way to decrease future pollution is just make sure every person has access to free birth control

    1. gaiabaracetti Avatar

      In Alan Weisman’s Countdown (will never get tired of recommending it) he also discusses Japan and apparently how they actually have less sex there now. I agree about contraception, but I do wonder if stress and high densities naturally work to reduce libido/fertility (or the other way round, such as in refugee camps?). I’m sure there are many scientific studies about this! (Some of which, unfortunately, involve tormenting rats with dystopian living conditions)

    2. ganzettifrancesco Avatar

      I would correct and transform your sentence in this one: the most desirable and acceptable way to decrease overall human footprint is just make sure every woman can have no more then a single child. ( Forced female sterilization)

  3. David Polewka Avatar

    God and Mother Nature don’t want aging populations; why do you?
    —————
    A smaller population could make the country’s crowded metro areas more livable, and the stagnation of economic output might still benefit a shrinking workforce. However, low birth rates and high life expectancy have also inverted the standard population pyramid, forcing a narrowing base of young people to provide and care for a bulging older cohort, even as they try to form families of their own.[44] In 2014, the age dependency ratio (the ratio of people over 65 to those aged 15–65, indicating the ratio of the dependent elderly population to those of working age) was 40%.[9] This is expected to increase to 60% by 2036 and to nearly 80% by 2060.[45]

    Elderly Japanese have traditionally entrusted themselves with the care of their adult children, and government policies still encourage the creation of sansedai kazoku (“3-generation households”), where a married couple cares for both children and parents. In 2015, 177,600 people between the ages of 15 and 29 were caring directly for an older family member.[46] However, the migration of young people into Japan’s major cities, the entrance of women into the workforce, and the increasing cost of care for both young and old dependents have required new solutions, including nursing homes, adult daycare centers, and home health programs.[47] Every year, Japan closes 400 primary and secondary schools, converting some of them to care centers for the elderly.[48]

    In 2008, it was recorded that there were approx. 6,000 special nursing homes available that cared for 420,000 Japanese elders.[49] With many nursing homes in Japan, the demand for more caregivers is high. Nonetheless, family caregivers are preferred in Japan as the main caregiver, and it is predicted that Japanese elderly people can perform activities of daily living (ADLs) with fewer assistance and live longer if their main caregiver is related to them.[49]

    Many elderly people live alone and isolated. Every year, thousands of deaths go unnoticed for days or even weeks, a modern phenomenon known as kodoku-shi (“solitary death”).[50]

    Mounting labor shortages in the 1980s and 90s led many Japanese companies to increase the mandatory retirement age from 55 to 60 or 65, and many today allow their employees to continue working after retirement. The increasing retirement age has put a strain on the national pension system. In 1986, the government increased the age at which pension benefits begin from 60 to 65, and shortfalls in the pension system have driven many people of retirement age to remain in the workforce, with some elderly individuals being driven into poverty.[57]

    The retirement age may go even higher in the future if the proportion of the elderly increases. A study by the UN Population Division in 2000 found that Japan would need to raise its retirement age to 77 (or allow net immigration of 17 million by 2050) to maintain its worker-to-retiree ratio.[62][63] Consistent immigration into Japan may prevent further population decline, and many academics have argued for Japan to develop policies to support large influxes of young immigrants.[64][4]

    Less desirable industries, such as agriculture and construction, face the most severe threats. The average farmer in Japan is 70 years old;[65] while about a third of construction workers are 55 or older, including many expected to retire in the next ten years, only one in ten is younger than 30.[66][67] The decline in the working population has also caused the nation’s military to shrink.[3]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan

    1. gaiabaracetti Avatar

      One thing about humans is that we’re very creative and adaptable. I was reading this yesterday and found it interesting and hopeful: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/12/2/the-south-korean-woman-who-adopted-her-best-friend
      Better than the Italian model, whereby we hire a huge number of foreigners to care for our elderly, and often treat them with contempt and suspicion as they are “strangers in the house”. You see very old people, often suffering physically and mentally, cared for 24/7 by younger foreign women who left their own children and grandchildren behind to care for strangers who don’t even enjoy life anymore. Many of us are hoping we never become a burden that way.

      We need help and company; it doesn’t need to be biological family. There are many solutions, some better than others.

      1. David Polewka Avatar

        We’re trying to play God, but no human being will ever be qualified for that position! And many of our leaders are not in fit spiritual condition. So the world is and will continue to be a Big Mess!

  4. Stable Genius Avatar

    Unlike the anglophone nations, it is inconceivable that Japan would ever countenance massive population growth against the popular will. One of the reasons, the anglophone nations like to portray Japanese population and economic policy is unduly negative terms.

    1. gaiabaracetti Avatar

      I think it all comes down to hostility to foreigners. Western nations don’t have it, in spite of all the rethoric; Japan and Korea do.

  5. DrDelbert Avatar

    This is one of those occasions when, however tempting it may be to assign a particular rationale, correlation is not causation.

    What happened in 2011 in Japan?

    Answer that question and the whole graph and its rationale disappears into dust.

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